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“Computer Models, Climate Forecasts

and other Dice Games.”





The Carbon Sense Coalition today called for an investigation into the IPCC/CSIRO computer models relied on for the scare forecasts of drought, floods and rising sea levels.


The Chairman of “Carbon Sense”, Mr Viv Forbes, challenged the IPCC claims that their computer forecasts have a 90% probability of being correct.


“The World Bank computers did not forecast the Global Financial Crisis.


“The British Met computers failed to forecast Europe’s frigid winter.


“Computers were unable to forecast the spread of swine flu or volcanic ash clouds.


“Since the introduction of its new computer program Queensland Health has been unable to pay their own employees properly.


“And the Australian Weather Bureau cannot forecast next month’s weather.


“Yet we are asked to believe that the IPCC computers are able to forecast global temperature, sea levels, hurricanes, droughts and diseases for a century ahead. They promise that, if we just stop using coal and oil, everything will be rosy.


“That is like betting our jobs, our industry and our energy and food supplies on a roll of the dice in the casino.


“There are about 20 Global Circulation Models using variable assumptions that claim to represent climate processes.


“Every model uses suspect or manipulated data and disputed processes, is fudged to fit past data and its forecasts reflect the biases of the builder.


“In twenty or so years of forecasting, not one has yet made a forecast that has proven to be correct.  Moreover, no two forecasts agree.


“But we hope one gets it right soon so we can scrap the other 19 and so save a lot of money.


“Until then, all IPCC forecasts should be written in pencil.


“And we should ignore them.”



Viv Forbes
Chairman, The Carbon Sense Coalition

Rosevale, Qld, Australia

18 May 2010
Phone 07 5464 0533

For an assessment and comparison of some of the many computer models used for Climate Forecasting see:



The forecasts of Global Temperature produced by the IPCC in 1990 are all well above actual temperatures measured accurately by satellite since 1978:




This graph is taken from a presentation by Norm Kalmanovitch to GeoCanada in Calgary May 2010.





The Ins and Outs of Coal Fired Power Generation.


Several readers found it amazing that the tonnage of gases produced by coal fired power
stations is far greater than the tonnage of coal burnt in that station. Magic multiplication?


No, it’s just chemistry.


Read on for more detail:


Watts Up with the Climate? Australian Tour


Anthony Watts, David Archibald and David Stockwell are touring Australia 12 June – 1 July 2010. Bob Carter will be speak at some venues. For details see:


Global Warming? Nothing New.

By Bill Kininmonth

The graph below shows temperatures reconstructed from Greenland ice cores and published in the peer reviewed literature. The data confirm pre-IPCC understanding of the climate history of the Earth: Earth warmed from the last glacial maximum about 15,000 years ago when great ice sheets covered North America and northern Europe and sea level was about 130 m lower than today. By 9,000 years ago Earth had warmed to the Holocene maximum when temperatures were warmer than today; the Holocene maximum lasted until about 4,000 years ago and there has been irregular cooling since.


The IPCC alarmist claim that Earth’s temperature has been steady for the last 10,000 years but this view is at odds with historical and archaeological evidence.


1.    Hannibal took his army and elephants across the Alps about 200BC in winter!

2.    Julius Ceaser, about 50BC conquered Gaul and, after building a bridge across the Rhine River, waged war on the Germanic tribes; he and his army withdrew across the Rhine and dismantled the bridge. The Rhine River acted as a natural barrier for the nearly 500 years but as the Roman Empire in Gaul was disintegrating the Vandals crossed the Rhine in the 5th century AD. The vandals did not build bridges but walked across the frozen Rhine River in winter.

3.    Greenland was settled by Vikings and by the 1100s there were more than 3,000 settlements. As the Little Ice Age advanced so the Greenland settlements were disbanded and the last was known to have perished about 1550AD, a century before the coldest of the Little Ice Age.

4.    For 300 years Earth has been recovering from the Little Ice Age. Mountain glaciers have retreated and high mountain passes of the Alps have opened. Archaeologists have identified artefacts from various eras corresponding with warming and cooling, and retreat and advance of mountain glaciers.


The arguments of the IPCC alarmists rely on an unchanging temperature record prior to industrialisation (that is, no Greco Roman warm period, no cold of the Dark Ages, no Medieval Warm Period and no Little Ice Age) to support their storyline of anthropogenic global warming. They claim that the warming of the past 100 years is unprecedented and therefore must be due to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide.










“Carbon Sense” is a newsletter produced by the Carbon Sense Coalition, an Australian based organisation which opposes waste of resources, opposes pollution, and promotes the rational and sustainable use of carbon energy and carbon food.

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Viv Forbes MS 23, Rosewood   Qld   4340   Australia.           07 5464 0533

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